Covid 19: A Contrarian View.

Presently a fear of the new Coronavirus has all of us petrified – but it is important to look at the numbers as well progress and likely demise in context and ease our impression of the virus’s lethality. The more civilized humans became, building cities and forging trade routes to connect with other cities, and waging wars with them, the more likely pandemics became. So pandemics are part and parcel of our progress. The earliest recorded pandemic happened during the Peloponnesian War in 430 B.C. (in Athens). As much as two-thirds of the world population died. The latest (before Covid-19) Spanish Flu-1918 (the avian-borne flu, Flu outbreak happened in Madrid in the spring of 1918 led to the pandemic being called the “Spanish flu”) caused 50 million deaths worldwide (18 million in India). The flu disappeared in the summer of 1919 when most of the infected had either developed immunities or died. In between (1918 and 2020) other pandemics also came, some of which were more lethal than Covid 19 but limited in geographical spread. Further, ten million people die each year in India alone, most of them of old age, and often with pneumonia as a terminal event. The seasonal flu also mutates every year and spreads around the planet and 290,000 to 650,000 die worldwide every year. Due to Covid 19, in Italy as elsewhere, most deaths have been recorded among elderly people with a coexisting disease. Remember casualties in man-made Wars, like WW2 in which millions of prisoners were killed in Gas Chambers alone. Thus at this point, coronavirus is not much worse than the annual flu. We should get back to normal life. Else the economic debilitation could kill many people, especially in less rich countries like India.

Accepting that it has stopped everything (economically), we should thank God that it has not destroyed anything like, what WAR, Earthquake or Tsunami would have destroyed. Thank God that India is not alone in this crisis, but whole world is affected and more badly; so relatively we are better off.  Take it is a course correction call given by nature. It may be good idea that we have paused on wrong developmental path.  We should be happy that it has given us clean slate or ground zero to reconstruct our home/ society/country afresh without baggage or legacy of past. While restarting economy, now we have opportunity to redraw and focus on essentials. Individually also, we may be able to understand what is essential and what is peripheral in life, what is life, life situation and what is life style consumption. Further, it will definitely advance progress of new technology and management practices in our economic life, which otherwise (due to inertia) were hard to be adopted.  It may force us to shed some aberrations that have crept in our religious or social practices. It has given correctly right signal of complete unity of humanity and nature. Will we take these signals seriously and correct ourselves? Lastly, if it is Fall (autumn) can Spring be far away.

As written above, historically, fact is, after every crisis civilisation has moved forward (individual countries or continent may suffer) and changed it for better. At the end of World War II a global framework based on shared values and interdependence evolved and resulted in a liberal international order. However in last four decades, under neoliberalism the developed world left public education, public health and public social infrastructure in disarray. In the developing world, a welfare state is still a distant dream. Now, we are regularly told that the state has a lesser role than the market in setting these problems right. Thus more than the loss (caused by Covid 19) above, there is/was loss caused by present laws and practices. There was a need or justification for a deeper intervention, writing of new rules in social, economic and political system that could not be carried out in normal times. Covid 19 has blunted the confidence and hyper-individualism, free market etc. that characterised the 21st century thus far and has given this opportunity to redraw rules of engagement and can be a good starting point for required correction. Now is the time that relative roles of the state and the market are viewed fundamentally differently. The market will have to be socially regulated. There is strong need of the reinstatement of strong social security measures in the whole world.

Before moving further let us understand what has been lost. What is intrinsic loss from Covid -19?  It is nil. What is Economic or Accounting Loss too much? What is the difference between two?  One litre of petrol will always give certain number of calories (intrinsic) on ignition; this value will never change irrespective of its continuously changing economic value which depends upon demand and supply, availability of alternatives and so on. In other words economic value is the value which goods or services are able to receive in exchange. Now what has happened in present crisis? This exchange of goods and service and there by flow of money has stopped. So we feel certain loss. From another perspective, what has stopped during Covid- 19? Man’s external activity, transaction activity or economic activity. Nature has not stopped working; original source of energy Sun is still shining. Vegetation, including agriculture has not been affected and growing well (Rabi crop is best this year), and functioning of associated activities too has not been stopped by government. Functioning of government itself has not stopped.  In factories raw material as well as finished good has not been destroyed and so on.

Even then let’s us accept output is lost, so the consumption too. And having admitted there is loss, what is this loss compared to such previous events, whether natural or manmade (written earlier)? Within short time this economic or accounting loss can be easily recouped. Only if govt. Allow only 75 % deprecation instead of 100 % as in normal year much of loss visible on balance sheet will vanish. If there is loss of 90 days production, the same can be compensated within maximum next 9 months by 33 % extra work. Many of states already have passed law amending labour law to allow workers working 12 hours in a shift instead of present 8 hours. Further, what is significance of this time frame in the life of a Nation? It is negligible. More important is willingness and determination to move forward. If that is lost (due to Covid 19) everything is lost.

Now coming to opportunities that Covid 19 has given us for correction, I learnt in Physics that maximum strength of a chain (the weight it can lift without breaking self) is the strength of weakest connected pieces, called links. At Macro level this applies to societies and nations too. Their strength does not lie in wealthiest or talented strata of society, but on the condition of lowest strata. And Covid -19 has forced us to look at it and given opportunity to strengthen it. More than 90% of the country’s workforce and 87 % of firms representing 21% of total turnover is estimated to be in the informal sector. Estimated 4 crore labour travel seasonally every year from rural areas to work in cities, farms or industrial areas. But, they are financially or socially not protected.  To rectify it, government can work in two ways. First, the government should provide a social safety net and an initiative to make it easier for internal migrants to have a political voice (voting rights) and social rights, so that the city or metro where they serve are obliged to take them as part and parcel of them and not the invisible outsiders. This can be done by implementation of One Nation One Ration card, portable voting cards, augmented public health infrastructure, better arrangement of shelter and so on. In short, in normal times and emergencies they should have equal rights like any other citizen of city/ state where they are working. Secondly, realign our growth strategies and bring about structural changes in our policies to redress regional imbalances. We ought to ease off our massive urban centres, which are a symbol of lop-sided development. We must think of alternative strategies to provide employment to working class in their towns and villages, so as to prevent economic migration to the Urban Agglomerates. We can plan cluster oriented economic activities whereby, factor of production as well as consumer is located in small- small geographical areas avoiding long dislocation of people and transportation of goods. We can plan a fresh whole economy based on our 130 cr people, without baggage of history.

Down at micro level, for individual industries (especially PSU), in the field of strategic business planning or restructuring, this is God sent opportunity to start with clean slate. For example now railway can discard completely old time table and plan a fresh, number of trains, the route, the stoppages, the fare and so on? It can properly reposition itself between air (long journey) and road (short journey) traffic. Railway can re calibrate freight and passenger train mix to maximise its gain. Individually also, during lock down as a human it has taught us what is essential and what is peripheral in life. “Atta (wheat flour) will be always more important/ essential than “Data”.  Only if present generation who has not seen something like 1966’s famine, crowd at ration shop, PL 480 Red Wheat but only has seen prosperous India which evolved after 1991 liberation will understand importance of  family, relationship saving, proper prioritisation of expenses and so on Covid- 19 will have served a good purpose.

As written earlier, historically, pandemics have been portals for dramatic change. So the world will not be the same after COVID-19. Humanity will have to find newer ways of dealing with public health emergencies and how we model our economic transactions. In general changes will be across multiple levels. First, policymakers will possibly devote more resources for future epidemic prevention. Second, the shape and size of institutions and governments could change, along with their interactions with communities. Finally, the workplace will never be the same again. Perhaps important lessons would be learnt on building strong community relationships. A blended model of work with different concentric circles of work from home, gig economy and formal work complementing each other would also be here to stay. This trend will accelerate and informal might become the new formal as citizens and businesses see the benefits.

From philosophical point of view, Covid 19 has forced us to realise that in spite of manmade division of nation, religion and class etc. we as human being are one without any differentiation. This crisis has reminded us, how interconnected our lives are, and presently how fragile these links are. We ignore the plight of others — especially the poorer and the underprivileged — at our own direct peril. This should also be taken as opportunity to correct aberration that has crept in our religious and social life. We can stop using religious and social gathering (including marriage function), which has turned out to be cheap show of wealth, strength in political rivalry or used for spreading hatred (instead of harmony) among different community and class.  Religion must be used as self-purification and moral guide for society. It has shown we all are sitting in single boat and we cannot shut our eyes if someone is drilling a hole in boat. One hole anywhere in boat is sufficient to sink the whole boat. Maybe that can be one positive lesson to come out of this unprecedented crisis — we sink or swim together.

Further in spite of all superiority shown by human’s over nature and other co-habitat of this planet called earth; it is proved human being is helpless against nature and only a single connecting point in whole biological chain without any privileges. This experience should make man more compassionate towards other species? It is also important to understand that when you disturb the ecosystem, these things will happen. When you keep destroying forests, there will be more animal-human contact and a higher probability of viruses in animals getting into humans. In other matters also, we have evidence that due to man’s activity eco system is degrading, glaciers are melting. We don’t know what’s hidden under them and what will come out of these glaciers? Something unknown like Covid 19 can come out.  So I think if there is any lesson in this, the lesson is that we should be taking care of our ecosystem. Hopeful the crisis could bring a change in the way human beings treat Mother Nature. Already, due to non-activity of human being, photos of blue skies and transparent river water are being circulated on social media.  The shutdown has brought air quality to acceptable levels even in Delhi (worst polluted city in India); presently residents of Jalandhar in the Punjab could see snow-capped Himalayas. We have seen the environment around us rejuvenate during the lockdown and animals at places where we would normally not expect them to be at. But such lock down cannot be a solution for nature to bloom. On the other hand we must develop a balanced economic model in which protection of environment find place. In the field of urban planning, we can stop re-encroachment of footpath by hawkers, improve slum condition and so on. In industrial policy we need not allow restarting polluting industries that discharge in Ganga and other rivers.

To conclude, for India, the Covid-19 crisis is a once-in-a-century change trigger. It presents an opportunity to craft a new economic model, bridge rural-urban divide. A looming economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic is a chance for India to enact sweeping reforms to fix ailing sectors. India has a history of taking reform steps during periods of crisis. For example, in 1991-92, it freed the private sector from a myriad of government controls, deregulated financial markets, reduced import tariffs and opened up the economy to more foreign investment to avoid a balance of payments crisis. Hopefully, this otherwise unmitigated tragedy will help us see how weakened we have become as a society and will focus our politics on the critical economic and health care reforms we sorely need. Finally, my worry is if Covid 19 is controlled too early and human and nation take it as another triumph over nature and continue over same development curve, we have not learnt anything from crisis.