Population Growth Rate and Hindu Muslim Divide.

With the statement given by Sakshi Maharaj, that Hindu woman should give birth to four children, a new dimension to, BJP’s development agenda against fringe element’s / parent organisation’s cultural agenda on one end and Hindu Muslim divide on the other end has emerged.

While BJP (officially) says, we do not concur with the view and has given show cause notice to adamant MP. Congress says all are hand in glove and so on.

It is no secret that some element of BJP (including some new entrant in its fold) by emphasizing development agenda, wish to come out of RSS shadow and make BJP a PAN India party, RSS and its parivar, see (BJP rule) an opportunity to spread its /their own ideology and increase influence over society.  Aim of both is same but path is different.

To some extent both group are successful also, that is why, in 102th National Science Congress, many of non –scientific issues (including Make in India) were discussed.

If we do not subscribe to view of congress that all are hand in glove, there seems to be intense internal war going on between Govt. and RSS. And many of Modi’s admirer like economist Bahgawati has cautioned against RSS agenda. (Somewhere I have written and I always maintained whatever be the size of unit/ organisation, it will always will have 2 parts, each opposing other).

Any way my topic of today’s discussion is not about BJP-RSS but about Hindu Muslim.

Even though BJP has given show cause notice to MP, VHP has come out in support of Sakshi Maharaj, citing reason of demographic imbalance caused by one community (Muslim) having higher birth rate (than Hindus). To prove their point (rightfully), they quote Sachhar Committee report.

But unfortunately, while they quote population growth rate of Muslim as against Hindu, from report, they deliberately forget education, economic, job disparity between two communities noted in the report.

That gives rise to a new question, whether disparity between Hindu Muslim birth rate is due to religion factor or education/ economic factor.

To understand this /find answer, we must compare birth rate among similar educational-economic group of Hindu and Muslims (Compare first, birth rate based on education/ economic criterion and then further based on religion), and still we find Muslim birth  rate is higher than Hindu’s birth rate then only we can attribute it to religion factor. 

There is a wide spectrum of opinion with regard to Hindu Muslim relations.

a.       Muslims has got their own nation and they do not have any place in India. v/s

b.      Indian Muslims have shown faith in secular India, and they need all the protection /encouragement.

c.       During the app. 600 years of their rule , Muslims have destroyed Hindu culture and it is time to take revenge v/s

d.      While ruling in India (unlike Britishors ) they have mixed with/ settled in India and has given rise to what we call ganga- jamuna tehjib and that is soul of present day India and needs to be preserved at any cost and so on

On which side of spectrum you stand, one is labelled as secular/ communal-nationalist etc.

Whatever may be one’s view, it must be admitted that in our feudal system (where caste/society is given more importance /prominence) like India, where progress of individual / community depends on right connections with ruling class (not only in politics but, business industry and every walk of life), and in this respect Hindu (secular or otherwise) being ruling class Muslim (and earlier other Dalit Hindus) could not make progress based on Merit (in general Muslim ruling class opted for Pakistan, today if 2 youth both 10^th pass, is interviewed for peon post , chance is Hindu youth will be selected over Muslim youth ).

As implied above, Muslims (who remained in/ opted India), were back ward class on the eve of Independence and benefit of any leadership and thus the gap between Muslim and other community widened over time.

 In this scenario there may be a deliberate thinking (other than economic, educational reasons), but I am not sure, in community to preserve identity by increasing proportionate population (overlooking what a small, but economic strong community can achieve- like Parsi).

But I still believe high birth rate among Muslims have roots in poverty and low education.

Solution to demographic imbalance can be found in decreasing Muslim birth rate by eliminating above causes (of high birth rate) and not increasing Hindus birth rate.

Prakash

16.01.15

Selective Pages from Diary 2014-Maharshtra Elections Pre- Poll Scenario.

It is no surprise that both the alliances, Shiv Sena - BJP  and Congress-NCP has broken.

In changed scenario it was obvious and expected.

While Sena was expecting  ( from BJP) the  same respect and importance it enjoyed   when Balasaheb was alive and its regional priorities, marathi asmita,  stand on undivided maharashtra etc were in contrast with BJP's  increased pride after LS election, National Priorities ( like inclusive all India agenda at least on paper), separate Vidarbha etc.

and last but not the least BJP's aim to make itself  a whole pan India party  was making Sena uneasy.

This relationship of a National and Regional party was in contrast with relationship of Congress  and regional parties, where in for rule at the center, congress allowed regional parties to grow ( or to say when after Indira Gandhi , there were no regional leaders left in Congress, regional parties including ex -congress man grew in states) and also to indulge in corrupt practices. At one point  of time , DMK fought all assembly seats and congress fought loksabha elections.
( At one place some time back/ before , I had written siding with BJP regional parties are stacking their own existence, while with congress it is reverse ie Congress took high  wrong risk and wiped out itself in many states).

One more difference is , congress and its proxy regional parties , all are/ were dynastic parties and common goal was to protect own family interest.But BJP is  cadre based party and opposed to dynastic rule, this is one more reason for split in BJP-Shiv Sena.

{ One interesting observation - how, when and why congress moved away from mass movement and non-dynastic mode of pre-independence period to arm-chair , dynastic political party that led to its decline is a subject of political research, but I think

When you (organisation)  do not have money and power it tends to be non-dynastic and democratic, but once you have money and power dynastic ( or at least in case of BJP authoritarian   ) tendency sets in, (specially in Indian  feudal system). If this is true, down  the  history  line 50 years hence BJP may become dynastic party. Already many a second rung leader has come up showing this tendency. Examples are Mahajan, Munde and Sinhas.}.

Now about Congress-NCP split.

Reason for this break up can be said to be same or different. NCP was demanding  more from weak congress, Pawar was not ready to work with/ under Rahul.  Rahul was not ready to allow slip Maharadtra, the way UP Bihar slipped away from  the congress fold. Further,for free image , congress wanted to get rid of NCP and so on.

Ultimately in politics and also in real life there is no permanent friends or enemy.

Every Relationship ( like medicine) has expiry date, and it is useless and some time dangerous to use/ continue beyond that date.
Whose gamble has paid off will be  known only on 19th October. Now all focus is on Post Poll alliance.

Prakash  28.09/2014

Post Script:


As I said above now BJP is planning to undermine SAD party and spread wing in Punjab ( and other states also where it not in power). In Punjab it is taking issue of drug addiction to spoil image of SAD and its leaders. Even PM has taken up this issue in his Man Ki Bat.

9/01/15

Selective Pages from Diary 2014- NDA Government is 3 months old.

BJP- NDA govt. is now almost 3 months old. Those who were expecting (radical)change are disillusioned a lot . Govt. is facing challenges/ shortage of talent (politically) and Bills are not ready to be introduced in parliament.

Those who were expecting ( radical ) change also overlooked Indian parliamentary system and undermined the power of Rajya Sabha to block radical change. It always cross checks , sudden large change of power equation  which takes place in Lok Sabha with 1-2 % change in vote share of   political parties or due to alignment of political parties.

So even assuming BJP will win all state elections with good margin BJP -NDA will gain majority in RS only in 2017.Till then it has to go slow on legislation changes. ( Insurance BIll is stuck up).

Further, assuming BJP-NDA gets power to change, its own outfit like "Jagran Manch", KIsan Mazdoor Sangh etc has (already) started opposition on GM crops, land acquisition bill and labour reforms. Situation is same , like when in 2009, we expected that , now that UPA do not need support of left, things will move fast, but TMC took  upon itself role played by left in UPA1.Socially/ psychological , a group always creates its own opposition ( Sub group opposing majority), like if it is not Hindu Muslim Divide, in Muslim state ( Iraq- Syria) Shiya Sunni divide is there.

To some extent BJP in its eagerness to become pan India party, and replace congress is assuming /adopting role/ policy of Congress. Thus it does not wish to replace congress but wish to replace itself with congress being sole representation of masses. It wants to be congress 2.00 version and adopting all things/ policies advocated by Congress ( and opposed by BJP in election)  like AADHAR

It seems it has realized that it can not change India so to rule the India, ready to change itself.

The difference   in BJP- Congress ( as written earlier) is not over economic policies but in cultural/ education field. Its foreign policy also seems to be different and aims at containing/ encircling China.

It is also ( so far) different in internal democratic set up that is in line with democratic India.

Prakash 

10/08/14.

Post Scrip:
Ultimately Govt has decided to take ordinance route and ultimately, if need be joint session of both houses to push its economic agenda.
5/1/2015

Selective Pages from Diary 2014- Election Results.

Country is heralded in New Age. BJP got full majority.

In many ways this election was different from earlier ones.

In-spite of all the apprehension misapprehension it must be admitted people chose best  ( based on merit) among the contesting leaders and political parties.   

Strategy of BJP/Modi was based on 3 pillars.

1. Top funding from corporataes.

2. Best use of Media / Social Media.

3. RSS support on ground.

And there can be separate essay/ bloggs on each above.

During the election BJP/ Modi used every jibe against them to best of their own advantage. Best example is comment of Manishankar Aiyyar against Modi as "Tea Boy", which is converted as " Discussion on Tea". The appropriate questions like status of Modi's marriage and woman snooping were also converted by Modi to his own advantage.

However as I said it is not a victory of Opposition but defeat of  ruling party.

It is irony that the class which benefited most by Congress policies, voted against congress, when party tried to share economic benefit with down trodden by inclusive / entitlement policies. It shows fractured / insensitive nature of Indian Society.

What about those for whom congress made policies ?. Probably they also got lured by.  mobility of a class above them and hoped that under Modi they can move up or (congress )message did not reach them at all.

What about Congress Now ?. As I wrote earlier , for plight of today's congress , Indira Gandhi is to be blamed who destroyed state leaders and structures ( who used to carry message to the last man).

I think Rahul Gandhi will never be able to give leadership , who have a phobia of Power after, as a teenager, witnessing grandmother and father being murdered ( because of being in politics). This (phobia) has filled his core psyche.

What about Manamhan Singh ?

Should he be blamed for present state of affair of UPA/Congress or thanked for allowing UPA/Congress to have full 2 terms by having closed eyes and accepting personal insults. Any way  he was not  a politician and all political consequences of UPA/ Congress functioning be accepted as that of Soniya Gandhi.

What about Muslims ?. I feel there economic level will improve , but they will lose equality with Hindus.

Lastly , Was it   voting against congress or against coalition politics, but every analyst had thought coalition politics has become permanent nature of Indian Polity.

How wrong were they ?.

Prakash 26/05/14

Post Script.

Does strong ruling party good for country or absence of strong opposition will harm democracy.

Time for judgement has not yet come.

Kale

5/01/2015    

Selective Pages from Diary 2014- Parliament Election 2014.

 Parliament Election 2014.

Half the process is over.

While BJP was able to create atmosphere of non -performance and corruption against congress and create  a wave in favor of Modi ( by masking communal face/issue). Now non-BJP and Congress are lately trying ( successfully or otherwise) to move election as secular v/s Communal fight.( Majority Rule)

They may be right in doing so. As even staunch supporters of Modi , accepts there is danger of  authoritarian ( Hitler) element coming to power. Victory of BJP is likely to be celebrated like India belongs to Hindu.

But they  ( like Arun Shouri)  say modi should be preferred based on performance and not to be opposed based on prejudice. Modi may be Hitler, but India is not Germany and can ( and have dealt in past- Indira Gandhi in 1977) deal with such persons and situations.

Arun Shouri also  rightly say Indian psyche prefers  strong leaders against democratic leaders. That is why Indira Gandhi is preferred over Manamohan Singh inspite of damages caused by first and progress achieved under second.

Modi may be modified Modi and may like to take India on path of progress but the persons  and institutions( like RSS) who are advocating Modi and making all out efforts to make him successful ( first time after 1977), may force him to take other course.

Tragedy is that parties who are opposing BJP/ Modi on basis of communal-ism has lost credibility (congress) and voter may not  listen their caution.

Where are we heading, Giriraj ( in Bihar) says those who are opposing Modi can ( and will have to) go to Pakistan, and Azam Khan is opposing EC because he feels this posture benefits him.

If all this is not election rheoertic   ( and is real feeling) we are heading toward situation like 1930-40 which resulted in partition of India.

What is hope , as Arun Shouri says ( I hope), Indian institutions like SC, Military and lastly people can deal with and will overcome it. But that is when if Modi comes to power. Before that, is there any hope from voter to avoid such situation ?

My hope is based  on Muslims, Dalit and Dravidan population who are outside RSS influence. Regional parties are also  give hopes, who would like to stop Modi ( Pre Election/Post Election) to save their fiefdom. AAP can also do magic , with voter who are sick of secular/communal  discourse and likely to vote for anti corruption.

Now it is less than 4 weeks , where Indian polity will unfold new chapter. 

I pray   this should be peaceful.

Prakash 

20/04/2014

In the hind sight it is felt that many of the observation made were correct, people sick of coalition politics and weak congress leadership gave  BJP  and   Modi a absolute majority.

As apprehended communal issues are being raised but fortunately Modi has kept controll over them and focusing on Developmental issues ( at least publically)

Kale 

5/01/15

Selective Pages from Diary 2014- Arvind Kejriwal and Dehli Election.

With  the rise of AAP party, Indian democracy has reached new milestone.

As I had written earlier , Anna's movement was unique in the sense that it challenged the supremacy of elected representative and called  them agent while public is deemed Principal. This was a movement which never demanded any thing from the King ( ruling class), but challenged it. And many a times government's move were no match  to Kejriwal's move and arguments.

It is unfortunate that Annna and Kejriwal parted way. If Kejriwal succeeded in Dehli, it was because of Anna. And if Anna could get  Lokpal Bill   passed (and others likely to be passed), it was because of Kejriwal's political success that made it possible. In absence of political fear, Anna's fast/ agitation, past or future had no impact on political class, who understand language of election only.

What was/is strategy of AAP, in forming the Govt. and congress and BJP allowing it to form the govt. Definitely AAP wanted to demonstrate that it does not shrink responsibility and can give alternative to BJP/Congress ( in the long run). While BJP/Congress , wanted to show that running Govt. is not easy and they expected that in next 3-4 months,  people will be disillusioned with AAP party and in parliament election effect will be nullified.

Apart from Anna what was the reason/ effect of AAP success. 20 years back, with the rise of Mulaymasingh, Lalu Prasad etc. (of backward classes) backward class started taking power in their own hand instead of being ruled by upper class. ( In south this phenomenon is over 40-50 years back).  

Similarly due to liberalization, urbanization and attaining critical mass. Indian middle class now wants power in its own hand ( Or it has realized power of its own vote.)   or expect govt. policies to be oriented or beneficial to them.

Presently due to Money Power and Vote Power , policies are simultaneously pro-rich ( 2G/ Coal Block) and pro poor(Food Security etc.). And middle class do not figure any where in ruling class's frame of mind, and this is going to change. Due to AAP effect  many a non-political/ organisation will get attracted to politics. And how it will affect politics and democracy. Whether new parliament reflect correct representation of Indian population by economic class ?Whether , ultimately political class will become pro-urban and pro middle class ( instead of present pro rich and pro poor)?

Only future will tell, else we have seen JP Movement and VP Singh Movement without much change in politics itself. 

So far Power Corrupts ( Corrupted) everyone.  The movement against Chiman Bhai Patel Gujarat , ultimately gave political support to Chiman Bhai Patel. What Mr. Fernadese demanded as Union leader and did railway strike, could not give /fulfill as Railway Minister. Kejriwal claimed he is having proof against Sheela Dixit , now claims if BJP has proof give it I will make enquirer.

Parody and Tragedy started to emerge now, whole AAP force was against congress corruption and now they are in power with congress support and are silent on congress corruption. Congress also welcomes AAP success to neutralize BJP.

Prakash 11/01/14.

In hind sight it is seen BJP could analyse secret of success of AAP, and focused on aspiration-al India rather than entitlement seeking India. Further, allowing to form govt and not allowing to work has ultimately benefited 2 national parties, Who will be benefited in forthcoming election ?

Prakash 5/01/15.