Rahul Gandhi and Congress Future.

Disclaimer: These views are not aimed to support Rahul Gandhi and Congress, but aim to express views that are not aired so far on public platform in this context.

Rahul Gandhi on leave? Is it really so. Probably no. Reverse of it seems to be true. He has started asserting himself and not ready to take uncalled blame for congress rout/fall in last 4-5 years. Real problem is many of old stalwarts (of Soniya time) are not ready to work under Rahul nor supporting Rahul in any election.

Now Rahul is saying either my way or no way and decide it before AICC session of April 15. Till that time I am going on strike and let the world know about it.

Can Rahul have his way? Yes, and probably on this condition only he will start his second inning. What is rational of this thinking? In spite of apparent failure of Rahul Gandhi, fact is that there is no one else in congress, around which Congress can remain united.

This begs the question of Dynastic politics practiced by Congress. Very first thing we need to understand that this is not the congress that we can call 130 year old grand party. At the most it is 45 year old party launched by Indira Gandhi. Old timers remember that, that time officially, there were 2 congress parties Congress (I) –I for Indira   and Congress (O) – O for organisation led by leaders like Morarji.  Those who had differences with Indira Gandhi and her policies left congress (I) and either vanished from public scene or became regional leaders by launching new parties.

Today’s problem of Congress or Rahul are to be traced back to Indira Gandhi policy, which destroyed party structure, regional leaders and made political party only an election winning machinery. This was in contrast with Nehru policy who not only nurtured his own regional leaders but took care to protect and encourage nano (not even micro) opposition. Just to protect interest of regional leader’s subject of “Land” was not included in central list of constitution and an elaborate chapter is available on land in it. Further, agriculture income was kept out of Income tax and so on.

Any way I expressed this view not in context of analysis of Indira Gandhi but in context of blame of Dynastic Politics on Congress. I only say after 1977 defeat, Indira Gandhi created her own congress in 1980 and there is nothing like Dynastic about it.   

Does Rahul Gandhi is perpetuating dynastic politics at least of Indira Congress? In a sense that congress is also not there now. After congress defeat in the hands of VP Singh, Congress was without Gandhi family and was on the way out of Indian politics. Then congress man prayed to Sonia Gandhi, who rebuilt congress of today and won two elections on her own. (Those who were opposed to Soniya, like Sharad Pawar, has left the congress)

Does Rahul Gandhi want to resurrect Indira Congress or continue Soniya Congress? It is further firm no. At least in theory, he wants to rectify mistake made by Indira Gandhi of destroying party structure and wish to move beyond Sonya Gandhi’s way of functioning. His vision is to create Nehru Congress version 2 on the line of AAP.

Will he succeed? Yes and No. or No and Yes.

Reason for No is basically/ inherently and so on is, after witnessing murder of Grand Mother and Father in quick succession on account of Power politics, I believe he really feels “Power is Poison” and by heart does not wish for it. In this mental state his is continuance in politics is itself an act of courage. How many of us will be able to continue in such situation?

This is big reason for No. But there are sign that out of humiliation or otherwise he is changing. His last public address in Dehli election (at Jhajarpur or something like that) gave glimpse of it.

If this no is gone. Rest of negatives are peripheral. Remember the early days of Soniya when her foreign origin was rallying point for opposition and her Hindi pronunciations were a matter of joke but she moved ahead and critics are left behind.   Rahul does not suffer from such basic negativities is a advantage for him.

Can Rahul coerce or persuade congress leader first and later masses to follow him. Chances are yes. The record of congress is better than BJP. Congress is not an ideological party, it is a public limited company, whosoever seems / is winning election and ready to give chair/profit , congress leader will follow him/her. Obedience is better in congress (there is nothing like RSS) see fate of BJP under Bedi, and compare it with Congress under Manmohan Singh and for that matter of Rahul (under unsupportive leaders).

In loksabha election, it was assumed country has moved beyond “entitlement politics” of Congress and now it is “Aspirational India”. But nine month down, with AAP victory in Dehli, it is again proved that voter still demands “subsidies and rights” and so demand for congress polices is intact. There is strong vote bank of 65 % for grab (outside core 35 % of BJP) any party including BJP.

Age is on his side, and  the blame of not having any experience can turn out to  be advantage of “no baggage”, when fighting against like Lalu, Mulayam etc. Having power in 8 states (though small ones) is advantage over AAP.

Rahul has opportunity, only future will tell us that once determined, whether he was able to replicate   hard work  done by Indira Gandhi between 1977 and 1980 and specially in last 2 months before 1980 election where she took extensive tour of India and addressed  more than 1000 rallies.  

There can not be a vacuum any where , specially in Politics.

With BJP Mast ( Self overjoyed, Ruttiest), Congress Sust (Sluggish, Sickly or Weary) and AAP Yvast ( Busy, active) the result of Dehli Election was a fore gone conclusion.

As I said earlier whatever be the result AAP had scored moral victory which ultimately tuned out to be political victory.

Some where I  have said, with the way BJP is undergoing under Modi, BJP is going the way Congress  had gone under Indira Gandhi and will suffer in long run.

Unfortunately I never imagined downfall will be so swift and so quick.This down fall started the day , overriding the constitution/ precedence, BJP made party President and PM from the same state. Then for a single person  ( first) ordinance was brought in. With this, BJP/Modi's self righteousness started in full speed and last in series was amendment to land acquisition bill.

But what BJP did or did wrong is not the subject matter and reason for AAP's victory. The architect of AAP's victory is Congress or complete collapse of Congress. Where BJP failed and AAP succeeded is occupying  the space vacated by Congress.

AAP's path to victory was ensured the day it forced unwilling BJP to have election by keeping its own MLA united ( BJP wanted to have defection and power without election). Result was further confirmed when   battle was made Kejriwal v/s Bedi. The way comparison was made between Rahul and Modi in parliament election, the same comparison was made between Bedi and Kejriwal and later was preferred. Ultimately there is no substitute for self hard work.

What is  the ripple effect of this development ?. Immediate effect will be on J&K government formation, where  now PDP will hard negotiate with BJP or may go with Congress and NC. Next  effect is on Bihar Politics, in aftermath of Delhi result BJP will rework/ rethink its strategy to support Manjhi. ( What a social development over 20-25 years. Earlier Lalu Nithesh fought battle of Dalit -Sawarn, over a period now it is between Dalit and Maha dalit).

Now, all Modi/ BJP's allies will be more critical/ vocal to speak their mind. Whosoever is hurt by BJP/ Modi attitude over last nine month is showing happiness and first in line is Shiv Sena, next is Akali Dal. Other group is of opponent of Modi/ BJP's, and where elections are due- Bihar, West Bengal and UP.Regional leaders of state  Nitish, Mamata and Akhilesh Yadav are praising AAP and expressing willingness to have alliance etc.

This result will also have adverse effect on  effectiveness of Modi's many initiative -domestic and international including Make in India. Already Pakistan and China media has shown happiness over the results.

And here is litmus test for AAP also. Not to have temptation to spread wing by alliance etc. Its leaders have shown dislike for anti BJP/ Congress front and preferred to have different type of politics. They hope to have organic growth and may next test their strength in Bangalore Municipal Elections. Ultimate test  is to stand by there own ideology/ commitment. Else history has seen many land slide victories like 1977 (Janata), 1984( Rajiv) and 1989 (VP Singh) without leaving lasting effect on political space. Its contribution will not be measured by its victory in elections but its success in reforming electoral politics.

Can AAP take space left by Congress. Not in near future. Whether it will grow nation wide depends on fate of congress. If congress, rejuvenate AAP has no future. AAP leaders are also aware of it and so does not see BJP as opponent. They realize, that  they can not take away BJP's vote bank, there whole energy to occupy rest of space and that is of Congress or Congress ideology.    

Indian politics has entered an interesting phase,on one hand  if BJP outreaches other constituents of society its core supporter are unhappy. But that space/ constituents  is almost 65 % of total population ( That is hope of India and Indian Democracy). Who grabs it- BJP, Congress or new parties like AAP is  real thing to watch.

Delhi Election 2015.

In a technical sense, Delhi's elections are not even state election and does not deserve the attention it is getting. However, being national capital and the fact that it is a litmus test for AAP type politics and BJP's desire to continue its winning streak, it has got an out of proportion  media attention  and political   significance.

(In a sense, it always happens, one rape in Dehli gets more publicity than say in Assam. The same is  also world over, the massacre of 12  people in Paris got world vide attention, so many state head attended rally and so on , while at the same time thousands of people were massacred by Boko Harem in Africa, but did not get any due attention.).

Any way today's topic is not about it.

  

From the beginning BJP is/ was more cautious about Delhi, first it delayed election in spite of Modi wave, then to avoid impact of alliance with PDP ( allegation of compromise over core issues of BJP for forming government would have been an issue in Delhi election and would have adversely affected it) is delaying the pact ( it will be  announced soon after voting in Delhi). There after to match the Kejrival, it brought, Bedi and sensing Bedis ineffectiveness again marshaled whole MPs and CMs   for campaign.

Whatever may be the result (  recent surveys showing AAP ahead in race), when BJP decided to put whole weight and brain behind Dehli's election and sensing the uncertainty of result made it Kejriwal-Bedi fight rather than Kejriwal-Modi fight, morally AAP has already won  the election .  A few people also say that with  both Arvind and Bedi joining politics, Anna or his movement has become irrelevant. But  to me it is success of Anna/ movement that, main stream political party has  either become irrelevant ( Congress), or forced to field one of the leader of movement to check AAP (BJP). It is also change of scene (due to Anna) that middle class/professionals instead of doing drawing room discussion over elections, has decided to participate in it. It is sign of maturing democracy  in India.

Who should win the elections ?.  Should Delhi  be ruled by BJP or AAP (AAP supported by Congress). Both  situations has its own pro and cons. If AAP wins , voice to oppose BJP will get momentum. Presently many of lies or misdeeds  of BJP/Modi goes unexposed or un-protested because of low morale or disarray in opposition camp and it is not good.( Credit to BJP for fall in petroleum product or amendment to land acquisition bill are a few examples.). Electoral reforms also may get momentum. On the flip side  many of the good initiative  like AADHAR, Swach Bharat etc. which  are getting successful just because there is no opposition to Modi/BJP may not be that much successful /possible in future. Locally Delhi may not  much develop under AAP ( Already, in earlier elections and now  also, BJP wants one party govt at Center/State / Local level, to have fast development. Corollary  concept of it that , center will not cooperate with non BJP govt at State or Local  level is also not being opposed on political or theoretical level).

This issue of development has different meaning to different strata of society.In this sense also Delhi elections are unique in the sense that first time in India votes will be given based on class  affiliation rather that caste and religion basis. With the Congress failing to take up issues of weaker sections ( because of communication problem)AAP has taken that space  and  they ( weaker section) are looking forward for free water / electricity and freedom from petty corruption under AAP and upper class is dreaming of world class infrastructure ( irrespective of cost) under BJP.

And under universal  franchise and favorable population ratio of weaker section AAP seems to be winning the election.

And where is  the Congress?. No where. Congress is still struggling to complete  generational change. So far this transition has become difficult due to reluctance and failure of Rahul. Old guard are leaving or becoming inactive.Latest is Jayanti Natarajan. Once this process is over , I hope congress will once again bounce back.

There are sign of it, today's Rahul, in a election rally  ( at Jahangirpur Dehli) was quite different. He was confident, extempore, taking responsibility for what Jayanti alleges about him and using to his own advantage.

For Delhis Election, this is too little and too late.

But, if Rahul can keep such confidence in future, who knows  a  months / year down the line  congress will start upward swing. If old guard continue to oppose Rahul, Congress may see one more split. But I foresee little chance of it as there is no unity  among leaders or leaders  of independent stature (, the way syndicate leaders under Moraarji Deasi opposing Indira) . Chances are old guard will just whither away. 

Let us  see what happens in Delhi in near future and of Congress in long term.

Prakash 

4/02/2015.