In a technical
sense, Delhi's elections are not even state election and does not deserve the
attention it is getting. However, being national capital and the fact that it
is a litmus test for AAP type politics and BJP's desire to continue its winning
streak, it has got an out of proportion media attention and
political significance.
(In a sense, it
always happens, one rape in Dehli gets more publicity than say in Assam. The
same is also world over, the massacre of 12 people in Paris got
world vide attention, so many state head attended rally and so on , while at
the same time thousands of people were massacred by Boko Harem in Africa, but
did not get any due attention.).
Any way today's
topic is not about it.
From the beginning
BJP is/ was more cautious about Delhi, first it delayed election in spite of
Modi wave, then to avoid impact of alliance with PDP ( allegation of compromise
over core issues of BJP for forming government would have been an issue in
Delhi election and would have adversely affected it) is delaying the pact ( it
will be announced soon after voting in Delhi). There after to match the
Kejrival, it brought, Bedi and sensing Bedis ineffectiveness again marshaled
whole MPs and CMs for campaign.
Whatever may be the
result ( recent surveys showing AAP ahead in race), when BJP decided to
put whole weight and brain behind Dehli's election and sensing the uncertainty
of result made it Kejriwal-Bedi fight rather than Kejriwal-Modi
fight, morally AAP has already won the election . A few
people also say that with both Arvind and Bedi joining politics, Anna or
his movement has become irrelevant. But to me it is success of Anna/
movement that, main stream political party has either become irrelevant (
Congress), or forced to field one of the leader of movement to check AAP (BJP).
It is also change of scene (due to Anna) that middle class/professionals
instead of doing drawing room discussion over elections, has decided to
participate in it. It is sign of maturing democracy in India.
Who should win the
elections ?. Should Delhi be ruled by BJP or AAP (AAP supported by
Congress). Both situations has its own pro and cons. If AAP wins , voice
to oppose BJP will get momentum. Presently many of lies or misdeeds of BJP/Modi
goes unexposed or un-protested because of low morale or disarray in opposition
camp and it is not good.( Credit to BJP for fall in petroleum product or
amendment to land acquisition bill are a few examples.). Electoral reforms also
may get momentum. On the flip side many of the good initiative like
AADHAR, Swach Bharat etc. which are getting successful just because there
is no opposition to Modi/BJP may not be that much successful /possible in
future. Locally Delhi may not much develop under AAP ( Already, in earlier
elections and now also, BJP wants one party govt at Center/State / Local
level, to have fast development. Corollary concept of it that , center
will not cooperate with non BJP govt at State or Local level is also not
being opposed on political or theoretical level).
This issue of
development has different meaning to different strata of society.In this sense
also Delhi elections are unique in the sense that first time in India votes
will be given based on class affiliation rather that caste and religion
basis. With the Congress failing to take up issues of weaker sections ( because
of communication problem)AAP has taken that space and they ( weaker
section) are looking forward for free water / electricity and freedom from
petty corruption under AAP and upper class is dreaming of world class
infrastructure ( irrespective of cost) under BJP.
And under universal
franchise and favorable population ratio of weaker section AAP seems to
be winning the election.
And where is
the Congress?. No where. Congress is still struggling to complete
generational change. So far this transition has become difficult due to
reluctance and failure of Rahul. Old guard are leaving or becoming
inactive.Latest is Jayanti Natarajan. Once this process is over , I hope congress
will once again bounce back.
There are sign of
it, today's Rahul, in a election rally ( at Jahangirpur Dehli) was quite
different. He was confident, extempore, taking responsibility for what Jayanti alleges about him and using to his own advantage.
For Delhis Election,
this is too little and too late.
But, if Rahul can
keep such confidence in future, who knows a months / year down the
line congress will start upward swing. If old guard continue to oppose
Rahul, Congress may see one more split. But I foresee little chance of it as
there is no unity among leaders or leaders of independent
stature (, the way syndicate leaders under Moraarji Deasi opposing Indira) .
Chances are old guard will just whither away.
Let us see
what happens in Delhi in near future and of Congress in long term.
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