Rahul Gandhi and Congress Future.

Disclaimer: These views are not aimed to support Rahul Gandhi and Congress, but aim to express views that are not aired so far on public platform in this context.

Rahul Gandhi on leave? Is it really so. Probably no. Reverse of it seems to be true. He has started asserting himself and not ready to take uncalled blame for congress rout/fall in last 4-5 years. Real problem is many of old stalwarts (of Soniya time) are not ready to work under Rahul nor supporting Rahul in any election.

Now Rahul is saying either my way or no way and decide it before AICC session of April 15. Till that time I am going on strike and let the world know about it.

Can Rahul have his way? Yes, and probably on this condition only he will start his second inning. What is rational of this thinking? In spite of apparent failure of Rahul Gandhi, fact is that there is no one else in congress, around which Congress can remain united.

This begs the question of Dynastic politics practiced by Congress. Very first thing we need to understand that this is not the congress that we can call 130 year old grand party. At the most it is 45 year old party launched by Indira Gandhi. Old timers remember that, that time officially, there were 2 congress parties Congress (I) –I for Indira   and Congress (O) – O for organisation led by leaders like Morarji.  Those who had differences with Indira Gandhi and her policies left congress (I) and either vanished from public scene or became regional leaders by launching new parties.

Today’s problem of Congress or Rahul are to be traced back to Indira Gandhi policy, which destroyed party structure, regional leaders and made political party only an election winning machinery. This was in contrast with Nehru policy who not only nurtured his own regional leaders but took care to protect and encourage nano (not even micro) opposition. Just to protect interest of regional leader’s subject of “Land” was not included in central list of constitution and an elaborate chapter is available on land in it. Further, agriculture income was kept out of Income tax and so on.

Any way I expressed this view not in context of analysis of Indira Gandhi but in context of blame of Dynastic Politics on Congress. I only say after 1977 defeat, Indira Gandhi created her own congress in 1980 and there is nothing like Dynastic about it.   

Does Rahul Gandhi is perpetuating dynastic politics at least of Indira Congress? In a sense that congress is also not there now. After congress defeat in the hands of VP Singh, Congress was without Gandhi family and was on the way out of Indian politics. Then congress man prayed to Sonia Gandhi, who rebuilt congress of today and won two elections on her own. (Those who were opposed to Soniya, like Sharad Pawar, has left the congress)

Does Rahul Gandhi want to resurrect Indira Congress or continue Soniya Congress? It is further firm no. At least in theory, he wants to rectify mistake made by Indira Gandhi of destroying party structure and wish to move beyond Sonya Gandhi’s way of functioning. His vision is to create Nehru Congress version 2 on the line of AAP.

Will he succeed? Yes and No. or No and Yes.

Reason for No is basically/ inherently and so on is, after witnessing murder of Grand Mother and Father in quick succession on account of Power politics, I believe he really feels “Power is Poison” and by heart does not wish for it. In this mental state his is continuance in politics is itself an act of courage. How many of us will be able to continue in such situation?

This is big reason for No. But there are sign that out of humiliation or otherwise he is changing. His last public address in Dehli election (at Jhajarpur or something like that) gave glimpse of it.

If this no is gone. Rest of negatives are peripheral. Remember the early days of Soniya when her foreign origin was rallying point for opposition and her Hindi pronunciations were a matter of joke but she moved ahead and critics are left behind.   Rahul does not suffer from such basic negativities is a advantage for him.

Can Rahul coerce or persuade congress leader first and later masses to follow him. Chances are yes. The record of congress is better than BJP. Congress is not an ideological party, it is a public limited company, whosoever seems / is winning election and ready to give chair/profit , congress leader will follow him/her. Obedience is better in congress (there is nothing like RSS) see fate of BJP under Bedi, and compare it with Congress under Manmohan Singh and for that matter of Rahul (under unsupportive leaders).

In loksabha election, it was assumed country has moved beyond “entitlement politics” of Congress and now it is “Aspirational India”. But nine month down, with AAP victory in Dehli, it is again proved that voter still demands “subsidies and rights” and so demand for congress polices is intact. There is strong vote bank of 65 % for grab (outside core 35 % of BJP) any party including BJP.

Age is on his side, and  the blame of not having any experience can turn out to  be advantage of “no baggage”, when fighting against like Lalu, Mulayam etc. Having power in 8 states (though small ones) is advantage over AAP.

Rahul has opportunity, only future will tell us that once determined, whether he was able to replicate   hard work  done by Indira Gandhi between 1977 and 1980 and specially in last 2 months before 1980 election where she took extensive tour of India and addressed  more than 1000 rallies.