As I
see and witness rise of Modi and BJP in Indian polity in the last two-three
years, I feel as though I am seeing
Indira Gandhi part II or sequel of a
realty show known as Indira Gandhi. Here, I am not remembering Indira Gandhi in
praise or disdain, but trying to find
out and compare similarities and differences
between both leaders and understand, (based
on effect of Indira Gandhi policies),
what to expect of long term effects of today’s Modi’s policy on Nation and BJP.
As majority
of today’s India consist of post Indira era, general perception is that Modi is
greatest and most popular (or authoritarian) leader of Independent India. Truth
is, even if we leave Nehru out of contest, based on good and bad things done (by
Indira) and being done by ( Modi), so far Modi is distant second to Indira
Gandhi.
To
justify the point a few examples. Modi rose to power by opposing old guard
Advani group, a repeat of Indira who opposed Syndicate and even defeated official
presidential candidate Sanjiva Reddy invoking
“Atama Ki Awaj” and got elected
independent candidate V V Giri. Modi has
done “Demonetization” as “anti rich pro poor”, Indira had done abolition of
privy-purse (allowance of ex- rulers of India -first breach of contract with
citizen by state) and Bank Nationalization. (Earlier Nehru had done abolition of Jamindari
System (far reaching consequence in rural economy and society) . The fact is emptiness of our pro poor policies (
of all govt) is self-evident as our socio- index are below neighboring
countries and wealth is getting concentrated with rich as the years pass by.
We
also praise Modi for surgical strike but then Indira had done far bigger strike
and made East Pakistan (now Bangla Desh ) independent of Pakistan. Today’s
generation may have all praise for Modi/ BJP’s swiftness to form Govt. in Goa
and Manipur ( in spite of not having majority) but it is no match to Indira’s
success in getting Sikkim ( independent nation) being made part of India.
To
be brief I will take one or two more examples and then start dealing with the
main theme of article- long term consequences of policy and achievement. Modi
/BJP rose to power on the wave of 10 year anti incumbency of UPA and general
desire of voter to get over the coalition era. Modi’s victory in UP is also continuation of
momentum built in 2014.( In between voter rejected BJP in Bihar and Dehli when
a credible alternative / opposition unity was available). Compare it with Indira’s
return to power (under all adverse condition) in 1980 within 2 and half year of
Janata Raj. Lastly compare the slogan of “Modi –Modi “of today with “Indira is
India and India is indira” of yester year coined by Mr. Barua a Assami Congress
leader.
Now
coming to consequences of Indira policies and based on it possible consequences
of Modi’s policies. Before that we must realize
that so far Modi govt. has not made any path breaking policy changes ( specially
in economic field) affecting economy or society
( except demonetization). However its implementation or management (also
corruption free- the fact is their aim is not to amass wealth but to achive a
majortian state ) record is far superior
to UPA and so successfully implementing old initiative like Aadhar and GST. Communication is also better, so when not able
to provide job, it appeals youth to become job giver not a job seeker
(incidentally Indira also diverted youth’s mind away from job by alluring them with self
employment loan schemes from banks).
There
is nothing like Right to Information/ Education or Food of earlier govt. Recently
it has given new health policy that too is extension of old and not guaranteed
any thing. In contrast AAP govt in Dehli has done something new innovative in field of
education and health.
Further,
we have to understand what today’s BJP is? Today India is Congress Mukt or BJP
is Congress Yukt ?. I think today’s BJP is Congress minus Muslim. (In UP 12
minister are turncoats from other parties, Manipur CM was a congress person 6
months back).
Now
analysis, we praised Indira for Bangla Desh victory, but as a reaction, we
faced Punjab militancy and created a new generation of Pakistanis who vows to
fight with India (else by this time both side’s new generation would have seen
cooperation more beneficial then confrontation). Pakistan embarrassed China. And I think, now
we better call Pakistan occupied Kashmir as China Occupied Kashmir. (By the way
for all talk of isolating and tough policy towards Pakistan, just now we
accepted Pakistani objection over building of two dams under Indu water treaty.
Also even though we talk of unrest etc
in Pakistan, Pakistan got better ranking in Happiness index than us).
Similarly,
(in spite of all talks of Muslim starting voting for BJP), its exclusion policy
towards Muslim has potential to increase hold of Muslim radicals over community.
It may be from (internal) Mr. Ovasis or (external) ISIS elements. It is social
issue and it is a security issue that we all of us as citizen must take note of.
Another
issue is when one party /person becomes too powerful its ill effect on
democracy and public policy. See the emergency, see the sterilization drive of
Sanjay Gandhi (Now it is believed, in absence of backlash to that drive our
family planning program would have been more effective in last 40 years), and
see the Blue star operation. I feel all these would not have been part of
Indian Political history had Indira not so powerful in her time. We must take lesson from history.
Last
point is Indira-Congress v/s Modi –BJP. Now it is well accepted that Indira, by
destroying regional leaders and internal structure, caused severe damage to congress from which it is yet to
recover. Same thing can happen with BJP. BJP a cadre based party, but may
become complacent and become leader centric party. However, hope is, as Modi do
not have any dynasty to protect this thing may not happen with BJP.
Before
I conclude, some points beyond Indira and Modi. It is observed that a slight
5-7 % shift in voter preference for or against a party, together with how
united or dis-united it’s opponent are, a party can sweep the election (today
BJP) or taste the dust (BSP in UP). And
in spite of the fact that our constitution makers took steps to protect Indian
polity from such swings, (see the way Rajya Sabha is visualized/constituted),
it is time we explore possibility of proportional representation to political
parties based on percentage of votes rather first past poll system of today.
We need this electoral reform more urgently than others to
protect us from future Indira or Modi.
